The three political forces in 2028

Three political forces have stirred the direction of Philippine politics in the past two elections, in 2022 and 2025. They will continue to define our country’s political course in the upcoming 2028 elections. These are the Duterte Diehard Supporters (DDS), the Bongbong Marcos forces, and the “Kakampink” group of former Vice President and now Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo. All the provincial and municipal politicians will fall in line under any of these three political forces.

The DDS and Marcos forces formed the “UniTeam” that overwhelmingly won the 2022 national elections. With the parting of ways between the DDS and the Marcos group, the three political forces fought against each other in the 2025 elections, and they carved out their respective factions in the Senate.

The DDS coagulated as a group when then Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte ran in the 2016 presidential election. Its members share the common belief that what the country needs is a populist strongman who will have no qualms about resorting to violence and killings as a means to solve societal problems like illegal drugs, corruption, and leftist rebellion. Its ranks consist of those who look up to the kind of dictatorial rule modeled by the late dictator, President Ferdinand Marcos Sr., and the populist governance of former President Joseph Estrada. The DDS now considers Vice President Sara Duterte as their leader, and they’re pushing for her to become the next president.

The Marcos forces consist of the Ilocano-speaking provinces of northern Luzon, whose people are fiercely loyal to a leader who shares their ethnic identity. Outside of the Ilocano-dominated provinces, Marcos supporters include those who venerate the current President’s late dictator-father as the ideal leader. They also include interim supporters who conditionally and pragmatically patronize President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as the “lesser evil” to prevent the return of the “greater evil” of another Duterte presidency.

The core of the Kakampink group consists of the original yellow (Dilawan) forces, which either helped or favorably viewed both the ouster of Marcos Sr. in the 1986 Edsa 1 People Power Revolution and the removal of Estrada in the 2001 Edsa 2 People Power Revolution. The Dilawan forces propelled both former Presidents Cory Aquino and Noynoy Aquino to the presidency. Then, Robredo inherited the Dilawan forces, whose ranks have been beefed up by a sizable number of the young generation, and by the segment of our population disgusted with the Dutertes. When Robredo adopted pink as her official color in her 2022 presidential run, the Dilawans became known as the Kakampinks.

With Robredo’s declaration that she’s not running for the presidency in 2028, and the recent campaign launched by supporters of Sen. Risa Hontiveros for the latter to gun for the presidency, we see an increasing stream of Kakampink leaders pledging allegiance to Hontiveros. If the support for Hontiveros snowballs, she stands to inherit the Kakampink forces lock, stock, and barrel.

The most interesting factor emerging in the run-up to 2028 is the lack of an heir-apparent or the absence of a successor being groomed by the Marcos camp. As a result, it’s becoming clear that the Marcos family is forced to have an alliance—just like it did with the DDS in 2022, but this time with the Kakampink forces. The very lives of President Marcos and his family could be in serious danger if the Dutertes reconquer Malacañang, because hell has no fury like the Dutertes scorned. At least, if the Kakampinks prosecute them, they will be accorded due process, and the Marcoses have had decades of experience navigating to their advantage the country’s judicial processes.

An interesting question is whether Mr. Marcos can shepherd his supporters to back the Kakampink standard bearer. Those who support Mr. Marcos by reason of his ethnic affiliation with northern Luzon will most likely back his choice of a Kakampink successor. It may not be the same for those who supported Marcos because they expected him to be a strongman like his father, as, in fact, many of those supporters may have already transferred their allegiance to the Dutertes.

The advantage that will be enjoyed by a Marcos/Kakampink alliance is that the DDS will be battered by a double whammy of negative revelations resulting from the evidence that will be exposed from the impeachment trial of VP Sara and the International Criminal Court’s prosecution of her father. Another advantage of the alliance will be its access to government resources and personnel that are always utilized by an incumbent chief executive to support his/her chosen candidate. On the other hand, the DDS will stand to harvest converts if economic hardship continues, with or without the fault of the Marcos presidency. Converts will also jump over to the DDS camp if the flood control corruption scandal is not addressed to the satisfaction of the electorate.

It’s less than two years in the run-up to the May 2028 presidential election, and the landscape is enveloped in fog, and the horizon is obscured by smog.