2025: A grand coalition vs Dutertes?

Perched on the edges of Manila, where the pearl of the orient meets the South China Sea, lies the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) headquarters. Located not far away from the statue of our most celebrated hero, Jose Rizal, is the BRP Melchora Aquino (MRRV-9702). Named after one of the heroines of the Philippine Revolution, she is a sight to behold. Drenched in silk white, and donning the royal blue and crimson red colors of our national flag, she is a massive 97 meters-long beast of steel. Constructed by Mitsubishi Shipbuilding Co. Ltd in Shimonoseki, Japan, BRP Melchora Aquino is one of the most modern and capable vessels of her kind.

In many ways, she represents the remarkable transformation of the PCG, which boasts one of the best personnel and equipment among our regional peers. Thanks to the leadership of PCG Commandant CG Adm. Ronnie Gil Gavan, and the relentless dedication of Commodore Jay Tarriela, the PCG has also become the linchpin of our struggle in the West Philippine Sea. Its world-renowned “transparency initiative” has exposed the moral bankruptcy and sheer brutality of Beijing’s creeping invasion of Philippine waters. Against all odds, and in tandem with other relevant agencies of the state, the PCG has been at the forefront of protecting our sovereign rights and national dignity in the disputed waters.

Last week, I had the pleasure of joining colleagues in the media and academe aboard BRP Melchora Aquino, which hosted a particularly vivacious thanksgiving event honoring our national defense leadership, most notably National Security Adviser Eduardo Año, who has been the linchpin of strategic maturity and sober patriotism in the current administration. Everyone was in a great mood. There was lots to celebrate.

Amid the bonhomie on the ship, I gazed at the vast expanse of the Manila Bay, now shrouded in darkness and scorching heat. Then I began wondering about the future of Philippine foreign policy and our struggle in the West Philippine Sea should a pro-Beijing regime once again take over Malacañang. Lest we forget, Vice President Sara Duterte, who has stubbornly refused to condemn any of China’s aggressive actions in recent years, is just a heartbeat away from the top office.

And her recent resignation from President Marcos’ Cabinet signals a titanic showdown between the Philippines’ two leading political dynasties in the coming months and years. Her thinly veiled threat about three Dutertes running for the highest chamber next year reflects their direct bid to retake the reins of power after the dissolution of the UniTeam. And make no mistake: next year’s elections are also a showdown between the world’s two superpowers, especially since both Washington and Beijing have a stake in who occupies Malacañang.

But where does this leave the genuine opposition? To forestall the potential return of Dutertes, former senator Antonio Trillanes IV has openly advocated for a new UniTeam between the administration and liberal-left forces next year. But Sen. Risa Hontiveros, the de facto leader of the progressive opposition, has struck down the proposal due to profound and principled differences with the Marcoses, who are yet to come clean on their historical legacy.

A formal “grand coalition” is a nonstarter, precisely because of the huge number of “Never Marcos” folks in the liberal-left camp. Moreover, it’s not clear what electoral added value can the diminished opposition bring to the well-funded and well-organized opposition. Crucially, the progressive opposition risks permanently damaging its prospects of a redemptive comeback in 2028, when a growing number of voters would have likely woken up to the paucity of authoritarian nostalgia and mindless populism.

What the genuine opposition, however, can do is stand as the voice of conscience in next year’s elections by, inter alia, warning against over-dependence on Western partners as well as calling out the cumulative deficiencies of the Marcos and Duterte administrations in the past decade. For the “Never Duterte” camp, they could zero in on the catastrophic economic, human rights, and institutional legacy of the Duterte administration.

Through a broadly autonomous two-front attack, both the genuine opposition and the administration can ensure that the Dutertes will struggle to regain back power despite their residual popularity and strong ethnic-geographic base. What is at stake is no less than the future of our democracy as well as our sovereign rights in the West Philippine Sea.