COVID-19, hantavirus, and disease X: Preparing for the next epidemic
The hantavirus is currently circulating on a passenger ship. The virus threatens and has already killed people. For many, this evokes fear and memories of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The following questions are currently occupying not only scientists and futurologists: 1. Can hantavirus mutate? 2. Does it have the potential of COVID-19 and what are the fundamental differences? 3. What viral infection could be even more dangerous in the future than COVID-19 or the Spanish flu? 4. What would a virus be that contains elements of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Ebola, and influenza?
A type of “Ebolapox”? Would this be dangerous or could it be quickly brought under control with vaccinations? Defined in short sentences that are understandable to laypeople:
1. Can hantavirus mutate? Yes. Like all viruses, hantavirus mutates. Viruses constantly copy their genetic material, which can lead to minor errors. These errors usually don’t change anything fundamental, but they allow the virus to adapt to new environments or hosts (such as humans).
2. Hantavirus vs COVID-19: The potential. While hantavirus is often more deadly than COVID-19 (depending on the type, up to 40 percent of those infected die), it has so far had a significantly lower pandemic potential.
Transmission: Hantaviruses are typically transmitted by rodents (urine and feces). Human-to-human transmission is extremely rare (known only for one specific type in South America). Infectiousness: COVID-19 spreads extremely quickly through the air (aerosols).
Hantaviruses are far less efficient in this regard. 3. More dangerous infections of the future: Scientists are primarily observing the so-called “Disease X”—a still unknown pathogen. Particularly dangerous could be: Avian influenza variants. If they learn to spread easily from person to person, this combines high mortality with rapid spread. Nipah virus: It has a very high mortality rate (up to 75 percent), but fortunately, so far, it is not easily transmitted. Resistant bacteria: While these are not viruses, they could usher in an era in which simple infections are no longer curable.
4. A “hybrid virus” (HIV + Ebola + influenza): Such an artificial or mutated virus would theoretically be the most dangerous scenario imaginable: Influenza component: Would cause rapid airborne spread. Ebola component: Would lead to severe internal bleeding and massive mortality. HIV component: Would disable the immune system in the long term and make it difficult for the body to detect it.
Control: Such a virus would be extremely difficult to control with vaccinations. HIV, for example, mutates so rapidly that even after decades we still don’t have a perfect vaccine. The combination of rapid mutation (HIV/influenza) and high virulence (Ebola) would likely overwhelm the health care system immediately. Hantavirus jumping from person to person on a ship would be a highly unusual and novel event, immediately triggering the strictest quarantine measures worldwide. Usually, the danger remains localized to contact with rodents.
Since serving as a young adult in the military in a biodefense unit and briefly in a biosafety laboratory level 4, I have been fascinated by viruses, bacteria, and toxins from a scientific perspective. These existed long before humans and will continue to exist long after we are gone. Let’s hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
Jürgen Schöfer, Ph.D.,
Biopreparat.Schoefer@gmail.com
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