3 events that will define our political future

For a period of 22 months beginning next month, July 2026, the Philippines will go through three very important consecutive events that will be crucial in setting the course of our country’s political future. That’s a lightning-fast period of less than two years in our country’s political life. Each of these three events will result in earthshaking consequences for our nation.

On July 6, 2026, the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte in the Senate will begin. Judging by our history of impeachment trials, there’s a chance that it could be completed with a decision in less than five months, or by November 2026. On Nov. 30, 2026, the International Criminal Court trial of former President Rodrigo Duterte will commence, and by the optimistic forecasts of ICC experts, it could be completed in one to two years. On May 8, 2028, the Philippine presidential election will be held, and the results will be known in a matter of days.

The decisions by the institutions involved in all three proceedings will be generally final—the Senate as impeachment court, the ICC, and the Philippine electorate. However, there have been two instances when the proclaimed choice of president by the electorate and the judgment of an impeachment court were both overturned by the sovereign Filipino people. In 1986, the proclamation of Ferdinand Marcos Sr. as the winner of the 1985 snap presidential election was overturned by the sovereign people in what has been called the Edsa 1 People Power Revolution. In 2001, the Senate’s preliminary decision in the impeachment of then President Joseph Estrada to block the opening of the “second envelope” (which was widely suspected of containing damaging evidence against Estrada) was effectively overturned by the Filipino people in a people’s uprising which has become known as the Edsa 2 People Power Revolution, leading to Estrada’s removal from office.

The proclaimed result of any presidential election, including the 2028 election, may also be overturned by the Supreme Court if there is proven evidence of fraud. However, there has been no instance in our history when our highest court reversed the proclaimed result of a presidential election. In contrast, a decision of conviction against Duterte by the ICC trial chamber may be appealed to the ICC appeals chamber, but there will be no other recourse outside of the ICC. Even a people power revolution cannot reverse an ICC judgment.

The impeachment of VP Sara is expected to be completed in a mere matter of months, judging by the two impeachment trials our country has had. In the impeachment trial of the late Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato Corona, the trial in the Senate began on Jan. 16, 2012. After just six weeks, or by Feb. 28, 2012, the prosecution had completed presenting 25 witnesses. The defense presented 15 witnesses thereafter. After merely four months of trial, the Senate rendered its decision on May 29, 2012, finding Corona guilty and removing him from office.

The proceedings against Estrada are the only other impeachment that reached the trial stage in our history. While that trial was not completed with a final verdict of conviction or acquittal, the pace of the proceedings that took place is also instructive. The Estrada trial started on Dec. 7, 2000, and by the time it was abruptly terminated on Jan. 16, 2001, after a mere period of 23 trial dates, the prosecution had already presented more than 30 witnesses.

In the impending impeachment against VP Sara, the prosecution has disclosed a list of 57 witnesses, but it has given word that it may still decide not to present all of them. On the other hand, the VP Sara defense team has declared that it will present more than 40 witnesses.

In the ICC trial, the prosecution stated that it plans to present 70 witnesses. The defense and the victims’ counsel have yet to declare the number of witnesses they intend to present.

The evidence, outcome, and perceptions of fairness or unfairness of the Senate and ICC trials will influence the 2028 presidential election. While the election is expected to take place after both the impeachment and the ICC trials have been completed, intentions and plans for the 2028 elections will have the power to influence the two trials. For instance, VP Sara may resign with the twin intentions of preventing the impeachment trial from reaching the decision stage and preventing her disqualification from the 2028 election. (There are conflicting arguments, however, on whether a resignation can prevent her disqualification from running in the election.) The current Marcos administration’s stake in the 2028 elections will greatly influence its willingness to render assistance in the impeachment and ICC trials. The vote or conduct of the senator-judges and the prosecutor-congresspersons may be influenced by their personal plans for the 2028 elections.

The ardent hope is that the three events will take place and be completed one after the other. Otherwise, our people may be overwhelmed with so much political drama taking place simultaneously.