Are we on the cusp of another Duterte presidency?
The latest Pulse Asia Survey putting Vice President Sara Duterte at 51 percent voter preference, on the surface, may seem to show a neck-and-neck battle for the presidency given the marginal majority. But if one is to dissect the numbers, it is quite far from anything that is heated and competitive; rather it paints a worrying picture, at least as far as the liberal opposition and the Marcos administration are concerned.
It is worth noting that the survey’s timing was juxtaposed with the dates between May 3 and 7—the period when the revelations on the alleged multibillion transactions and drug links of Duterte and her husband, as well as alleged bagman Ramil Madriaga’s testimony have flooded the news. It was also within the dates when the House committee on justice has successfully and unanimously approved the Articles of Impeachment against the Vice President. And yet, inspite of all the notoriety attributed to her, Duterte remains politically formidable.
Surveys, after all, are less of a prediction but more of a statistical snapshot in time. However, beneath the latest Pulse Asia survey lies a cautionary case study of regionalism and tribalism, the enduring invincible forces that have always shaped Philippine elections and will surely be among the key factors that will decide the outcome of the high-stakes 2028 presidential derby.
Duterte’s 91 percent preference in Mindanao is a screaming statement in itself; this country has a fortress to reckon with, and it was purely built on identity. The National Capital Region, the supposed bastion of market votes, gives Duterte a slight lead of 48 percent. And as if to put a final nail in the coffin of any potential contender’s chances, the comfortable dominance of Duterte across all social classes has ruptured the belief that it was the masses from whom she has drawn much support.
Now, all eyes are on the Senate impeachment court, which is populated by a sizable number of Duterte-friendly senators. An impeachment is a legal exercise as much as it is also a political spectacle, and, notwithstanding the potential pieces of evidence that can be unearthed by the prosecution, pragmatism, since time immemorial, has influenced the members of the Senate. And the VP’s possible acquittal, to the detriment of the liberal opposition and the Marcos administration, is akin to handing Malacañang to Duterte on a silver platter, given the sheer, biting reality that comes with the latest Pulse Asia survey.
Meanwhile, former Vice President and Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, who is still the most powerful figure from the ranks of the liberal opposition, has repeatedly shut down rumors of another presidential run despite polling at a respectable preference of 41 percent; the Tulfo brothers, who represent the so-called “third force” and enjoy an equally significant support based on the surveys, have since been denying they will seek higher posts in 2028; Sen. Risa Hontiveros, an honorable, strong-willed, fierce public servant in her own right, has declared her willingness to aspire for the presidency, but lacks the base which Robredo and the Tulfos have. The Marcos administration, ostensibly, doesn’t have a strong standard bearer.
And so, amidst all the events, drama, noise, and speculations, one crucial question demands a definitive answer: are we on the cusp of another Duterte presidency?
Ian Carlo Aragon
iancarloaragon@gmail.com
