Forward or backward in 2028

The Duterte dynasty committed a monumental blunder when it failed to field a trusted successor in the 2022 presidential elections. For that, the Dutertes now find themselves in a political inferno. Is the Marcos dynasty headed for the same colossal mistake in the run-up to the 2028 presidential election? Will the Marcoses suffer the same fate, finding themselves in a political hellhole in 2028?

In the 2022 presidential election, former President Rodrigo Duterte’s choice as his successor to the presidency was his trusted assistant, now Sen. Christopher “Bong” Go. Duterte wanted his daughter, then Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, to merely run as Go’s vice president. In a rebellious fit, Sara Duterte defied her father by teaming up with Ferdinand Marcos Jr., running as his vice presidential candidate. The Marcos-Duterte UniTeam went on to win, but oversized egos and colossal ambitions soon collided, leading to a bitter breakup. And now, the Dutertes find themselves besieged on multiple fronts.

It’s two and a half years to the end of the Marcos presidency, and we don’t see anyone being groomed as a successor from the Marcos camp. President Marcos’ children are all underage. Former Speaker Martin Romualdez has imploded, Sen. Imee Marcos is a pariah within the Marcos camp, and no one among the Marcos alter egos has enough gravitas to go toe-to-toe against Vice President Sara Duterte.

VP Sara will be a formidable presidential candidate in 2028 because she has multiple blocs of solid supporters. There are die-hard Duterte supporters, who constitute a sizable base and who are unshakable in their support. There are members of religious groups who will obediently follow the directives of their leaders to vote for VP Sara. These include the Iglesia ni Cristo, the Jesus Is Lord of Cibac party list Rep. Eddie Villanueva and Sen. Joel Villanueva, and the Kingdom of Jesus Christ of Apollo Quiboloy. There will also be command votes from politicians embroiled in corruption scandals who foresee an escape from liability under a Sara Duterte presidency.

Instead of grooming a successor, there seems to be a reliance on legal remedies to prevent a Sara Duterte presidency. First, the Marcos administration is cooperating with the International Criminal Court (ICC) for the prosecution of the Duterte patriarch and his erstwhile lieutenants. Second, there’s the remedy of domestic criminal prosecution for massive corruption against VP Sara, Davao City Rep. Paolo Duterte, Go, and other Duterte allies. Third, there is the impeachment option against VP Sara next year.

However, the effectiveness of these remedies in preventing VP Sara from running in 2028 is unpredictable. It’s true that these three remedies will expose the rotten core of the Dutertes, in the hope that it will cause voters’ support for them to thin out. However, we have seen that no amount of scandal, corruption, logic, or reason can sway the blocs of solid supporters of VP Sara. There is a dire need, therefore, to select, groom, and consolidate support for a candidate who has the biggest chance of winning against VP Sara at the polls.

The only political leaders who stand a chance against the VP are those outside the Marcos camp. In my unsolicited calculation, these leaders are the following: Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, Sen. Risa Hontiveros, Sen. Raffy Tulfo, and former Philippine National Police Chief Gen. Nicolas Torre. Of these four, Robredo still has the biggest chance, and any one of the rest can serve as her vice presidential candidate.

But to increase the chances of Robredo, she must form alliances with the Marcoses and all other anti-Duterte forces, no matter how tarnished their past may have been. To maintain an idealist stand will be a guaranteed formula to lose in the 2028 elections. In fact, to be an idealist in 2028 is to naively be pro-VP Sara. It is immensely important that all anti-Duterte groups embrace a pragmatic stand, build a united coalition, and support a common candidate for 2028. The idealists among the yellow and pink forces must suspend their puritanical beliefs for 2028. For our country to get out of the hellhole, we must first wade through the mud before we reach dry and solid ground. It would be delusional daydreaming for anyone to think that we can leapfrog from the sh*thole to the Garden of Eden.

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We have a preview of the propensity for violent vendetta by the Duterte children, from the way they have openly threatened assassination and vengeance against an incumbent President, his family, and their allies. If they can do it to the reigning Marcoses, they can do it to anyone else. There’s a huge reason to fear that violence will be worse compared to the first Duterte presidency. And this time, there will be no ICC to run to for recourse. We have also seen the enormous propensity for corruption, judging by what is being unearthed from flood control and public infrastructure projects, confidential funds, and even COVID-19 funds during the Duterte presidency and the two-year reign of the Marcos-Duterte UniTeam.

The stakes are super high for our country in the 2028 elections. Either we inch forward or we somersault backward and dive deeper into the abyss.

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