The BSP does surveys, too

Next Friday will be the 33rd birthday of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), which took over, on July 3, 1993, the operations of the original Central Bank (CB) of the Philippines, founded 44 years earlier, on Jan. 3, 1949. The BSP/CB, aside from its monetary functions, has also played an important role in survey research.

The CB was the pioneer gatherer and assembler of the wide spectrum of economic data on production, trade, prices, etc. needed by the new republic. It did the first national income accounts, which are now done by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). The Central Bank Statistical Bulletin was a fat compilation of tables, and the data sourcebook most used by economics majors in my college days (class 1962).

The BSP has its own statistical surveys. At present, the BSP has a Consumer Expectations Survey (CES), based on national samples of over 5,500 households, and a Business Expectations Survey (BES) of over 500 companies, drawn from the 7,000 largest Philippine corporations; the database is quite adequate. The BSP is the one responsible for questionnaire design, data analysis, and publication; it outsources sampling and field implementation to the PSA. Both surveys have been quarterly; but the BES will become monthly soon.

The CES, despite its name, asks its respondents not only what they expect for the future, but also how they compare the present with the past. In particular, they are asked whether (a) their family’s financial situation at present, and (b) their total family income at present, is better, the same, or worse, compared to a year ago. The Filipino phrasings in the questions are: (a) kalagayang pinansyal ng inyong pamilya, and (b) kabuuang kita ng inyong pamilya. These two questionnaire items allow the CES to track the direction of change—if there has been a change—in the survey respondents’ economic well-being, broadly described.

The survey findings from these items are labeled “current quarter” in the CES reports. On the other hand, the results for questions on future expectations of the same conditions—likewise answerable by “better,” “same,” or “worse”—are labeled “next quarter” and “next 12 months,” in accordance with their respective time perspectives.

Furthermore, the BSP’s regular practice in publishing the CES findings is to subtract the percentage answering “worse” from the percentage answering “better,” and then to report the net-better percentage. (See www.bsp.gov.ph; reporting the gross percentages as well would clarify the subtraction process.)

For instance, the latest CES Report, for the 1st Quarter 2026 cites (a) the family financial situation of the “current quarter” as net -0.8 percent, and (b) the family income of the “current quarter” as net -6.2 percent. The negative signs on the net scores mean that the plurality of Filipino families got worse off in terms of the two probes, compared to 12 months before. This is very common. Furthermore, it happened even though the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, adjusted for inflation, rose over the same time span. This is the best proof that GDP is a very misleading indicator of national progress (see “Meaningful economic targeting,” 2/7/26).

The CES and the Social Weather Stations (SWS) gainers-versus-losers surveys validate each other. The SWS quarterly questionnaire also uses the better-same-worse choices. It only differs from the CES question by referring to change in the respondent’s personal quality of life, or uri ng pamumuhay ninyo.

SWS publishes both the gross percentages of each answer-choice and the net difference between the favorable and unfavorable answers, as in: “Social Weather Report: 50% of adult Filipinos got worse off in the past 12 months,” www.sws.org.ph, 4/22/26. In that survey, those that gained were 23 percent, giving a net-gainers score of 23-50 = -26 (correctly rounded).

The exact numbers do not matter as much their algebraic sign: there is agreement that worsening dominates over bettering. Since the mid-1980s, it is a fact that losers almost always exceeded gainers. Gainers finally got the upper hand in 2015-2019, were trashed by the pandemic in 2020-21, resurged in 2022 up to mid-2025, and then became so-so.

Expectations for the future are a different issue, on which one can be confident. Whether based on SWS or BSP’s CES, optimism always dominates—except in pandemic—and the only issue is how dominant it is (see “38% of adult Filipinos expect their Quality of Life to improve in the next 12 months,” www.sws.org.ph, 5/5/26).

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mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.

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