Who blinks first?

A veteran journalist put in words what most political observers were thinking yesterday, as members of the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) swarmed Edsa-White Plains Avenue early in the morning: “Now we’ll find out who runs the country—Marcos or Manalo.” The Palace informed the press that President Marcos was canceling his engagements for the day to “monitor the situation,” followed by an exchange of statements: the INC declaring it opposed charges against Sen. Rodante Marcoleta as “selective justice” and a “distortion of the law,” and the Palace warning the public not to be taken in by cults.

By early afternoon, after an earlier rain shower had literally dampened the proceedings, reporters said the rally site had emptied out. While one ex-cop, Nicolas Torre III, had people clapping again when, in his capacity as general manager of the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, he simply started having vehicles blocking the road towed away, the Philippine National Police itself seemed less dynamic.

The PNP seems to have been either taken by surprise by the mass mobilization or slow in responding to it, and once it heaved into action, seemed inclined to continue on the basis of sheer momentum: it had declared itself on full alert as far as Regions III and IV-A, suggesting it expected reinforcements to the rally, when reporters were airing video of the empty rally stage.

From the start, the INC has punched above its weight in terms of the percentage of the population it counts as its flock, by offering politicians a bloc of votes that does what it’s told. In 2001, it showed that it could bring this discipline to the table in terms of mass mobilizations, not just matching but dwarfing, the ability of the militant left to marshal its ranks. Crucially, 2001 also showed that without this discipline, any mass protest would quickly degenerate into a frightening but inevitably unsuccessful mob.

Its leadership has been shrewd, hard-nosed, and ruthless in wielding the power that comes from being able to command such a bloc at the voting precincts, the streets, and even in filling the manpower needs of corporations. Who can forget how the last time the bloc manifested itself in the streets, it left the Dutertes high and dry the moment it felt satisfied it had made its point and the INC had been given the attention it felt it deserved.

What it did yesterday was jolt the political class, starting with the President, but you have to wonder to what end. Obviously, to protect one of its own, Marcoleta who, as a member of the flock, isn’t simply an INC-endorsed or allied legislator. If the INC can’t protect one of its highest-placed members, it would look worse than weak, it would look ineffectual. To keep Marcoleta’s seat at the table, however, is to keep open every possibility, precisely because he has a seat at the table and can be part of any—and every—bargain.

When Metrocom officers tried to shut down the INC radio station at 3:30 a.m. of Sept. 23, 1973, a firefight ensued and Juan Ponce Enrile had to deescalate the situation. The INC had no choice and reliably supported the dictatorship: all it asked was a kind of political tithing from administrations that enjoy its support. It refrains from going past a point of no return. But it isn’t beyond practicing—effectively, more often than not—brinksmanship. Governments usually blink first.

Yesterday may or may not have been related to the impeachment but it was definitely related to Marcoleta, but allowing him to continue whatever it is he does in the Senate doesn’t necessarily mean how he will vote in an impeachment is cast in stone. That will ultimately depend on how well or badly the trial is handled by the prosecution and defense.

It is a warning to all concerned to check and double-check their ranks. A surprised or slow police is a cause for concern; for example, the rather curious reluctance of some media outlets to simply say what the rally was–an Iglesia-led event—is another. Enraged commuters matter less because public anger is fleeting and fickle. But the orders of a cohesive bloc, in an era where blocs matter far more than most other movements, and most especially political parties or alliances, do matter.

Most problematic of all is that Marcoleta is terrified of the charges because he implicated himself over P75 million in donations. He may not have been lying when it became clear he took the money while being ignorant of laws to the contrary: it’s the “everybody does it” argument. Everybody did it, why pick on me? (Selective justice if you do!); so many others are dirty, why pick on me? (Distortion of the law if you do!).

Is it problematic because if everyone ended up facing trial for breaking the law, we might have hardly anyone left in government? That’s too extreme; but it is problematic because the quid pro quo traditionally demanded by organized groups is too widely divorced from what the public—and even the law—demands in terms of propriety, for it to cause anything other than harm to public confidence in government. But it is needed more than ever by politicians.

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Email: mlquezon3@gmail.com; Twitter: @mlq3

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